"Pathways Analysis for State Proliferators,"
M.S. Thesis, Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX (2011).
A computational tool to assess the most likely path a
state proliferator would take in making a nuclear weapon was
created in a Bayesian network. The purpose of this work was to
create a tool to facilitate analysts and policymakers in learning
about state proliferation. In carrying out this work, a previous
Bayesian network based on nuclear weapon proliferation was expanded
to include dual-use export controlled technologies. The constant
nodes in the network quantifying technical capability,
international networking, and available infrastructure were
developed to be based on pertinent characteristics that were
appropriately weighted. To verify the network, nine historical
cases of state proliferation were tested over time, and the
enrichment and weapon pathways were graphed. The network
sufficiently modeled the cases, so it was concluded that, while one
can never truly being able to sufficiently validate a network of
this type, sufficient verification was achieved. The tool was used
to gain knowledge and insight concerning technology transfers with
four countries in hypothetical cases. This exercise proved that the
network can in fact be used to learn about state proliferation
under different policies and conditions.
Associated Project(s):Terrorism Pathway Analysis and Assessments