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Terrorism Pathway Analysis and Assessments

The post September 11th world has shown the U.S. that it is a country with many enemies and enemies who are much more capable than perhaps previously believed. This threat is magnified by the fact that many of our adversaries are not sovereign nations that can be dealt with diplomatically or even with open force. Security for our nation against terrorist tactics can be achieved with proper tools and staying one step ahead of our enemies. Enemies whose design is to cripple the American economy, lower moral, and otherwise terrorize and destroy her populace. Enemies whose goals might be efficiently met with a nuclear attack against America. Since the wide spread availability of nuclear weapons would essentially give anyone the potential to kill on a mass scale, halting the spread of nuclear weapons is the greatest priority for our nation.

This project is intended to be a means to further the aims of nonproliferation. The project's objectives are to:

1. predict the most likely pathway an organization will take to acquire a nuclear weapon, 2. provide a tool to analyze the effect different evidence about an organization and its activities will have on our understanding of their paths, and 3. ascertain the seriousness of the threat any particular organization poses.


  1. G.R. Hundley, W.S. Charlton, and K. Childress, "Determining Acquisition Pathways for a Radiological Dispersal Device," Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting for the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Baltimore, Maryland, July 11-15, 2010. See Document
  2. W.S. Charlton and D.G. Ford, "Assessment Tool for Nuclear Weapon Acquisition Pathways," Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management, July 8-12, 2007, Tucson, AZ. See Document


One portion of the Visual tool used in the Monte Carlo Network approach to SNM Acquisition.
One portion of the Visual tool used in the Monte Carlo Network approach to SNM Acquisition.

Theses/Dissertations Produced:

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